细分的互联网行业未必就有市场
文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)
记得早在两年前，那时候随着Web2.0的兴起，长尾理论也逐渐被互联网广为接受，似乎是在那个时候开始，互联网的很多产品呈现了细分化发展趋势，这些细分产品满足了各个层面的需求，挖掘了互联网的长尾，产生了巨大的价值。
一个典型的例子是即时通讯，QQ一家独大已是事实，而淘宝旺旺以及王志东的Lava-Lava等通过细分圈定了用户特定的需求，也取得了成功。不过话又说回来，淘宝旺旺和Lava-Lava，这些经过细分的产品，未必就能如他们所愿获得足够的市场，或许几千万的用户就已经是极致。
当然，这个细分化也可能只是一个吸引投资者驻足的“噱头”而已，很多人只注意了服务品质的提升，却忽视了市场规模的缩小。举个简单的例子，你去商场买衣服，大众化的衣服不一定适合你，所以，商家愿意为你量身定做一件衣服，你固然觉得衣服很合你之意，但除你之外，适合这件衣服的人可能并不多。
我记得上次看赢在中国的时候，有个选手的项目是购物搜索，显然这是综合搜索下面的一个很不起眼的分支而已，最后这个项目被枪毙，除了在概念上中国人难以接受外，另外一个重要的原因就是市场规模。很多创业者总会信誓旦旦的说中国地大物博，人口众多，所以市场也足够庞大，但细分下来呢，不过是毛毛雨而已。
除了搜索引擎和即时通讯，在电子商务这个领域也存在不少细分网站，这些行业性电子商务网站在网盛科技上市之后突然变得炙手可热，依靠广告加会员加建站的模式，其盈利或许并不困难，难在市场规模的扩展。
市场规模是其一，其二，在对用户进行深挖掘这个过程中的开销也会很大。按照马斯洛需求变更原理，越朝高端走用户的要求越高。有人可能会以二八理论来反驳，那么我问你，既然对大多数人来讲，20%的服务即可满足80%的需求，人家为什么又要接纳你？
其实在行业网站的发展过程中已经出现了这个问题，所以一些不同行业的网站又搞起了线上线下结合的模式，因为单纯的线上交易已经远不能满足用户需求。
前日看了IT龙门阵里面讲到刘建国的爱帮网，颇有感慨。爱帮网服务于网民的生活是可行的，其提出上市的目标也值得赞赏，只是互联网细分的市场问题若不解决，上市谈何容易。此文只是客观而论，对事不对人，不是枪文。
It is uncertain to master the market for the subdivision in Internet
Since I remembered two years ago, with the developing of Web2.0, The Long Tail was accepted by Internet step by step. At that time, there is one trend for many products, that's subdivision. we can also call them fine sorted products. The fine sorted products meet the needs at so many aspects. They exploited the long tail and make so many profits.
One typical example is IM, as we know, it is true that QQ has mastered the main market. And MSN taobao and Lava-Lava have enclosed the need of users and obtained great success. But it is not so easy for them to obtain enough market. The perfect situation is mastering tens of millions of users.
Of course, it may be just one stunt to attract VC. Many persons just pay attention to the quality of serve but not the scale of market. Take shopping as an example, if you go shopping for clothes, the popular clothes may not be suitable. So you must be satisfied with the tailor make, while no others can accept it.
I remember that I watched “Win In China” last time. One project is “shopping search”, that's just one subdivision of “Search market”. The project has been killed by the jugs. It is not easy for the users to accept the concept and more significant reason is the scale of market. So many entrepreneurs always claim the market is large enough. But how about the subdivision, it is just potty.
Besides search engine and IM, in the field of E-business there are many subdivision websites. These industry websites become more and more hot after NetSun. The profit mode are advertisement and membership. It is not difficult to make profit, but difficult to expand the market.
The scale of the market first, second, it will cost more to exploit the users. In accordance with Maslow theory, the users will require more and more with the perfect of Internet. Maybe some friends will refute me with the theory of “Pareto Law”. But if the 20 percent of serve can meet 80 percent needs, why the users accept you?
The problem has raised in the development of industry websites. So some websites hold the mode of both online and offline.
Recently I watched Jianguo Liu told about “Aibang” and pondered some question on it. Aibang serves the life of users. It is wise and we should admire the objective of going public. But if the problem of subdivision can't be solved, it is impossible to go public. This article just shows my point of view, but nothing else.
