九月九，酿新酒，好酒出自咱的手啊.......
就在9月9，花旗银行的分析师采访了EMC II的CEO David Goulden，谈了很多投资者关心的问题。今天，西瓜哥简单来分享一下EMC对高端存储和中国市场下滑的看法，我相信我的读者都会特别关注这两个问题。其他的问题，大家感兴趣可以点击后面的原文链接查看英文原稿。
Citi 2015 Global Technology Conference Call
September 09, 2015 01:15 PM ET
Executives
David Goulden - CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
Analysts
Jim Suva - Citigroup
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为了保证原汁原味，这里我首先附上英文原文，然后用中文概括一下主要的意思，方便那些英文不好的同学。
EMC是如何看待高端存储市场的下滑？
Jim Suva - Citigroup
Okay. Let’s talk about VMAX a little bit. Kind of where do the trends you’re seeing in VMAX, I believe it’s declining despite you have a new product cycle there, can you get investors up to speed about VMAX?
David Goulden - CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
Sure. So, the VMAX market and the VMAX product is declining, despite a new product cycle. One of the questions that people ask is it being cannibalized by all-flash arrays and of course with our own XtremIO with far market share leader there that’s a small piece, it’s not a major factor in terms of revenue decline in VMAX or in the traditional storage platforms. The bigger factor is that new applications are being hosted on different class of storage, so as people roll out analyticals applications, big data applications, applications to support the Internet of Things, they’re typically going for scale out cloud systems, scale out object systems, Hadoop systems et cetera, and they’re not putting as many new applications on the VMAXs as they did before.
Now, that doesn’t mean to say that VMAX is going away, the VMAX installed base in terms of numbers of systems is actually very stable and the actual amount of capacity in the total VMAX fleet is actually expanding. So there is more capacity, there is more terabytes or petabytes on the floor than they were in prior years before but ray of expansion has slowed down and because of the improvements in price performance in the underlying technology that reduced that creates a decline in revenue base. So it used to be that the capacity was growing such to the point the revenue also grew, the capacity is still growing but the price performance improvements on a year-on-year basis is now driving a decline in marketplace.
That will be a multi-year thing, the good news is those systems aren’t going away, as I said, there is actually a higher amount of capacity in the fleet this year that it was last year, it’s just that most new applications are now going on to different classes of storage platforms, in which we happen to be the market leader as well.
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EMC II CEO的观点：
1、虽然高端存储的产品也进行了更新，但高端存储收入确实在下滑；
2、很多人认为高端存储下滑时由于全闪存阵列造成的，其实这个不是主要因素；
3、更大影响高端存储下滑的因素是新的应用基本都不用高端存储。用户把分析、大数据、物联网这些新应用部署到scale out的云系统、对象系统、Hadoop等等这些存储系统上，而不像以前把新的应用都部署到传统的存储上。
4、高端存储市场并没有消失，其实这个市场是稳定的，而且出货容量继续保持增长。容量增长而收入下降主要是高端存储的性价比越来越高的原因。
5、这种下滑会持续多年，但高端存储不会消失，而且EMC在其他新存储形态系统也是市场领导者。
EMC如何看待中国市场的下滑？
Jim Suva - Citigroup
Okay. A lot of investor concern is on China demand, whether that's geopolitical pushback or just a slowdown in GDP in China which isn't necessarily new, but most recently with their stock market seeing a lot of volatility, there is a lot of concern around China. Can you remind us about how important is China for EMC and maybe has the situation been getting worse, stabilizing, being better? Every time I turn on the news in the morning or read the newspaper at night, it seems like that the end of the world is coming or China is slowing. As you sit there as CEO, what type of trends do you see in China, both on a geopolitical as well as maybe end-market demand?
David Goulden - CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
Right. So China is going to be impacted by both of those. We saw the geopolitical influence on all market in China in Q1. If you remember, we quantified the asset around the kind of $33 million, $35 million impact, vis-à-vis our expectation in the early part of the year. So significant, but on a company of our size, not going to change dramatically our profile. And we’ve seen those trends continue, we mentioned they continued in Q2, we expect them to continue throughout the year. So China as a marketplace is not our biggest market clear by a long factor. And it’s a market where there were not as many geopolitical impacts upon our end of the industry until this year, but this year we will be feeling that headwind and we expect it to continue throughout the year. Obviously what we saw from a geopolitical point of view through Q1, Q2 is factored into what we expect to see for the rest of the year.
Jim Suva - Citigroup
When you say that 30 to 33, what was that relative to, is that year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter versus original expectations?
David Goulden - CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
It was – if you remember, it was versus our expectations coming into 2015.
Jim Suva - Citigroup
So expectations, coming into the year.
David Goulden - CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
So when we talked about where we were coming into the year, we talked about how things shaped out in the first quarter from a demand point of view, we kind of basically explained that China Wall is a piece of it and roughly about third of the impact we saw was related to China, so that’s why we got to the $33 million roughly compared to what you saw coming into the year.
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EMC II CEO的观点：
1、中国销售的下滑受到地缘政治和中国GDP下行的双重影响；
2、2015全年预计受中国影响的销售额大概在1/3约33-35m美金；
3、对于EMC这么大公司来说，中国的下滑对公司整体影响不大，因为长期以来，中国市场就不是EMC的大市场；
4、地缘政治原因造成Q1和Q2中国销售的下滑，预计全年都受到影响。
【西瓜哥学习心得】
1、高端存储市场的下滑除了受到闪存的冲击外，更多是新的第三平台应用基本都不用高端存储，而是其他scale out形态的存储。
2、传统的第二平台应用还是继续会采用高端存储，只是高端存储性价比的改善，虽然容量增加，但收入下降。
3、这种趋势是长期的，传统的存储厂商应该学习EMC，加快转型，因为现在存储的整体收入基本是持平的，但传统存储部分在下滑，新兴存储部分在快速增长。不转型，3-5后将会非常惨。
4、中国市场对很多IT跨国公司来说，有影响但影响不大。因此，中国和美国的政治对抗对中国公司来说短期利好，但长期来说绝对是弊多利少。马上习近平要访问美国，希望两国政府在这方面的谈判有所突破，这也是IT的幸事。
