python多变量分析 pytorch多变量预测

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charlesc 2023-08-07 21:17:16

文章标签 python多变量分析 LSTM pytorch 多变量时间序列预测多步长 文章分类 Python 后端开发

I. 前言

在前面的两篇文章PyTorch搭建LSTM实现时间序列预测（负荷预测）和PyTorch搭建LSTM实现多变量时间序列预测（负荷预测）中，我们利用LSTM分别实现了单变量单步长时间序列预测和多变量单步长时间序列预测。

本篇文章主要考虑用PyTorch搭建LSTM实现多变量多步长时间序列预测。

II. 数据处理

数据集为某个地区某段时间内的电力负荷数据，除了负荷以外，还包括温度、湿度等信息。

本文中，我们根据前24个时刻的负荷以及该时刻的环境变量来预测接下来4个时刻的负荷（步长可调）。

任意输出其中一条数据：

(tensor([[0.5830, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.6957, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.6215, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.7391, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.5954, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.7826, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.5391, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.8261, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.5351, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.8696, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.5169, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.9130, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.4694, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.9565, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.4489, 1.0000, 0.9091, 1.0000, 0.8333, 0.4884, 0.5122],
        [0.4885, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.0000, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.4612, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.0435, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.4229, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.0870, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.4173, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.1304, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.4503, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.1739, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.4502, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.2174, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.5426, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.2609, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.5579, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.3043, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.6035, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.3478, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.6540, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.3913, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.6181, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.4348, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.6334, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.4783, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.6297, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.5217, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.5610, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.5652, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.5957, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.6087, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902],
        [0.6427, 1.0000, 0.9091, 0.6522, 1.0000, 0.3256, 0.3902]]), tensor([0.6360, 0.6996, 0.6889, 0.6434]))

数据格式为(X, Y)。其中X一共24行，表示前24个时刻的负荷值和该时刻的环境变量。Y一共四个值，表示需要预测的四个负荷值。需要注意的是，此时input_size=7，output_size=4。

III. LSTM模型

这里采用了深入理解PyTorch中LSTM的输入和输出（从input输入到Linear输出）中的模型：

class LSTM(nn.Module):
    def __init__(self, input_size, hidden_size, num_layers, output_size, batch_size):
        super().__init__()
        self.input_size = input_size
        self.hidden_size = hidden_size
        self.num_layers = num_layers
        self.output_size = output_size
        self.num_directions = 1 # 单向LSTM
        self.batch_size = batch_size
        self.lstm = nn.LSTM(self.input_size, self.hidden_size, self.num_layers, batch_first=True)
        self.linear = nn.Linear(self.hidden_size, self.output_size)

    def forward(self, input_seq):
        batch_size, seq_len = input_seq.shape[0], input_seq.shape[1]
        h_0 = torch.randn(self.num_directions * self.num_layers, self.batch_size, self.hidden_size).to(device)
        c_0 = torch.randn(self.num_directions * self.num_layers, self.batch_size, self.hidden_size).to(device)
        # output(batch_size, seq_len, num_directions * hidden_size)
        output, _ = self.lstm(input_seq, (h_0, c_0)) # output(5, 30, 64)
        pred = self.linear(output)  # (5, 30, 1)
        pred = pred[:, -1, :]  # (5, 1)
        return pred